Predictions and Systems Part V — The 2025 NFL Draft

In Part IV, we analyzed ten players that are at the top of most NFL Draft Big Boards using the hand grenades-not-horseshoes 5/5 system I devised. In Part V, we will examine ten more.

A refresher on the 5/5 System:

PFF overall grade (I often call this a Production rating/score/grade)
NFL Combine athleticism score
High school star ranking
PFF primary skill rating
Weighted schedule using Jeff Sagarin rankings

Gut Reaction: + // — // =

A player can score higher than 5/5. A 4* rating gets you one point, but a 5* rating gets you two; a PFF overall grade of 82 can get you one point, but 90+ gets you three and maybe even four. The higher the score, the better the player.

I then add a final piece — this is purely speculative, purely my own analysis and gut reaction. There is a sound logic and analysis behind it, but at the end of the day, I am simply adding a plus, a minus, or an equal sign to say that my gut is telling me this player is likely to be good, bad, or unsure.

As a quick explainer on #5 — I use Jeff Sagarin’s rankings on college football teams to determine which is a Good, Bad, or Mediocre team.

1-30 is considered Good
31-45 is considered Mediocre
46+ is considered Bad
100+ ranked teams get an extra penalty

I then use the PFF player ranking for that game and adjust it up or down depending on the strength of competition.

The player production rankings are

Elite (90+)
Pro Bowl (85-89.9)
Starter (70.0 -84.9)
Back Up 60-69.9)
Replaceable (0-59.9)

An Example:

John Doe played North State and had a 96 Production rating. North State is ranked 106 by Jeff Sagarin. A 96 production score would normally rank out as Elite; but being above a 100 means I knock it down two levels to simply Starter.

* * * * *

Grey Zabel

North Dakota State // Offensive Tackle

90.4 [3]
89[2]
0* [-3]
93.1 [3]
-1 [-1]

Gut: +

TOTAL: 4/5+

Strip away his pedigree rating and you’re looking at one of the best prospects in the draft. Even the low Weighed Schedule score doesn’t scare me as much as it would someone else, as the schedule he played was so bad and so penalized that -1 shakes out as being a pretty good score. Great athlete, great production, great primary skill. I like this guy a lot.

Nic Scourton

Texas A&M // Edge

80.1 [1]
71 [-2]
4* [1]
80.6 [1]
+3 [2]

Gut: +

TOTAL: 3/5+

Lots of green flags, and just one red flag — a low NFL Combine athlete score. It drags his score down quite a bit, but considering how well he scores across the rest of the metrics, my best would be on his upside.

Demetrius Knight JR

South Carolina // Linebacker

82.8 [1]
73 [1]
3* [0] // 4* [1]
82 [1]
0 [0]

Gut:=

TOTAL: 3/5=

Two things jump out — one negative, one positive. The negative is that his NFL Combine athlete score is very bad, and the positive is that his play in big games was exemplary. I always default towards play against the best opponents when I’m doing these analysis and that is Knight’s big virtue.

Josh Conerly JR

Oregon // Offensive Tackle

78.3 [0]
85 [2]
5* [3]
83.6 [1]
-13 [-4]

Gut: —

TOTAL: 3/5-

Fantastic athlete, excellent primary skill, and a pedigree to die for. He also had a genuinely horrific Weighted Schedule score. It’s so bad that it overrides my love of his athleticism and makes me much more negative on him. But, man, what a player.

Elic Ayomanor

Stanford // Wide Receiver

74.1 [-2]
80 [1]
3* [0]
74.3 [-2]
-4 [-2]

Gut: —

TOTAL: -5/5-

The rating list speaks for itself. However, I will say that for as underwhelming as the list is, I am surprised that his Weighted Schedule score wasn’t worse.

TJ Sanders

South Carolina // Defensive Tackle

82.4 [1]
68 [-3]
3* [0]
79 [0]
+2 [1]

Gut: =

TOTAL: -1/5=

I gave Sanders a “=” on the gut reaction because despite the obvious red flags in the 5/5 list his WS score is actually pretty good.

Tyleik Williams

Ohio State // Defensive Tackle

79.2 [0]
77 [-1]
4* [1]
88.6 [2]
+4 [2]

Gut: +

TOTAL: 4/5+

Love this guy. Incredible player. Incredible Primary Skill and incredible Weighted Schedule score. Only real red flag is that his athlete score doesn’t wow me.

Jack Bech

TCU // Wide Receiver

83 [1]
73 [-1]
3* [0]
83 [1]
-7 [-3]

Gut: –

TOTAL: -2/4-

A very competent college wide receiver who doesn’t leap off the screen.

Xavier Watts

Notre Dame // Safety

89.7 [3]
69 [-3]
4* [1]
89.5 [3]
-3 [-2]

Gut: +

TOTAL: 2/5+

Xavier Watts is one of my favorite players in this draft. If he had even a normal athlete score he’d be up at the top part of the Big Board. Regardless — I think this dude has a chance of being a very good player in the NFL.

Trey Amos

Ole Miss // Cornerback

85.6 [2]
69 [-3]
4* [1] // 4* [1]
85.6 [2]
-3 [-2]

Gut: =

TOTAL: 0/5=

I don’t know what to make of the 5/5 list, which alternately states that he’s incredibly productive and skilled with a good pedigree and yet he’s as athletic as a wood post. I gave him a “=” in Gut because I’m confused. I think he’s better than the 5/5 list is giving him credit for.