Predicitions and Systems Part IV

In Part III, we analyzed ten players that are at the top of most NFL Draft Big Boards using the hand grenades-not-horseshoes 5/5 system I devised. In Part IV, we will examine ten more.

A refresher on the 5/5 System:

PFF overall grade (I often call this a Production rating/score/grade)
NFL Combine athleticism score
High school star ranking
PFF primary skill rating
Weighted schedule using Jeff Sagarin rankings

Gut Reaction: + // — // =

A player can score higher than 5/5. A 4* rating gets you one point, but a 5* rating gets you two; a PFF overall grade of 82 can get you one point, but 90+ gets you three and maybe even four. The higher the score, the better the player.

I then add a final piece — this is purely speculative, purely my own analysis and gut reaction. There is a sound logic and analysis behind it, but at the end of the day, I am simply adding a plus, a minus, or an equal sign to say that my gut is telling me this player is likely to be good, bad, or unsure.

As a quick explainer on #5 — I use Jeff Sagarin’s rankings on college football teams to determine which is a Good, Bad, or Mediocre team.

1-30 is considered Good
31-45 is considered Mediocre
46+ is considered Bad
100+ ranked teams get an extra penalty

I then use the PFF player ranking for that game and adjust it up or down depending on the strength of competition.

The player production rankings are

Elite (90+)
Pro Bowl (85-89.9)
Starter (70.0 -84.9)
Back Up 60-69.9)
Replaceable (0-59.9)

An Example:

John Doe played North State and had a 96 Production rating. North State is ranked 106 by Jeff Sagarin. A 96 production score would normally rank out as Elite; but being above a 100 means I knock it down two levels to simply Starter.

* * * * *

Kenneth Grant

Michigan // Defensive Tackle

83.7 [1]
73 [-1]
4*[1]
87.5 [1]
+5 [2]

Gut: +

TOTAL: 4/5+

Analysis: The only worrisome number is his athlete score, as taken from the NFL Combine athlete scoring system. His performance was excellent in games big and small, and he took it up a notch in the bigger games.

Cam Ward

Miami // Quarterback

92.9 [3]
90 [3]
0*(high school) [-3]/4*(transfer)[1]
91.7 [3]
+11 [4]

Gut: +

TOTAL: 11/5+

Analysis: There has been a lot of talk about the top QBs in this class — mostly saying that, had they come out the year before, they wouldn’t have been taken high in the first round, if the first round at all. Maybe that’s an accurate assessment; but all I can tell you is that my grading system sees Cam Ward as one of the top if not the top guy in the draft.

I have been as skeptical as others, but I am wondering — if film analysis, athletic analysis, and pedigree are saying one thing, then what exactly is saying the other thing?

Derrick Harmon

Oregon // Defensive Tackle

83.9 [1]
73 [-1]
4* [1]
80.5 [1]
-3 [-2]

Gut: =

TOTAL: 0/5=

Analysis: Harmon graded out well on the PFF overall and on the primary skill stat, but his low athlete score and bad WS give me pause. The reason I didn’t give him a minus on gut reaction is that this dude really fucking hated Ohio State, and he played like a demon each time the Ducks and the Bucks met. Ohio State, you might remember, won the National championship. There are some red flags that the 5/5 throws up, but above all else, I value competitiveness and play in the biggest games, and Harmon has that.

Darius Alexander

Toledo // Defensive Tackle

90.6 [3]
78 [0]
2* [-1]
90.3 [3]
-16 [-4]

Gut: =

TOTAL: 1/5=

Analysis: Good lord, that Weighted Schedule score. But he also graded out in the 90s, at the Elite level, in both overall production and primary skill. From my experience, guys who grade out that high tend to make it, so even though I’m skeptical because of the pedigree and the WS, I am not down on him at all.

Mykel Williams

Georgia // Edge

78.4 [0]
75 [-1]
5* [3]
70.7 [-2]
+9 [3]

Gut: —

TOTAL: 3/5-

Analysis: Incredible pedigree, one of the best WS scores I’ve come across — yet his overall production and primary skill and NFL Combine athlete score grade out very poorly. I don’t love that. In looking through his stats, I also saw that his QB hurries were pretty low, and had gotten lower each year. That makes me nervous.

Shemar Stewart

Texas A&M // Edge

79.5 [0]
84 [2]
5* [3]
67.2 [-3]
+1 [1]

Gut: =

TOTAL: 3/5=

Analysis: An absolutely gem of an athlete with as good of a pedigree as one could ever hope for — combine those with a solid Weighed Schedule, and you’ve got yourself a recipe for a very good player (according to 5/5 anyway). What stops me from going over the top is that his primary skill score as a pass rusher was incredibly, worryingly low, and grading out that poorly does not give me confidence.

Matthew Golden

Texas // Wide Receiver

74 [-1]
87 [2]
4* [1]
75.6 [-1]
-5 [-2]

Gut: +

TOTAL: -1/5+

Analysis: A top-shelf athlete with a great pedigree, who despite a poor WS had his best and highest level play during the biggest and toughest games. A lot of red flags on production and primary skill, but he showed up most when it counted, and being a competitor is usually the best predictor of future success.

Omarion Hampton

North Carolina // Running Back

88.4 [2]
82 [1]
4* [1]
90.5 [3]
-12 [-4]

Gut: —

TOTAL: 3/5-

Analysis: Take away the Weighted Schedule score, and he looks like the best running back prospect in the class. Add that back in, and it makes my teeth clench. It’s just so low despite everything else screaming that he’s going to be a great player. I watched a fair amount of Hampton last year, and I’ll say the WS doesn’t match what my eyes saw — so this will be an interesting test case.

Colston Loveland

Michigan // Tight End

85.9 [2]
75 [-1]
4* [1]
90.6 [3]
+2 [1]

Gut: =

TOTAL:6/5=

Analysis: Highly skilled, highly productive, good WS. Why only a = on the gut reaction? The athlete score has a lot to do with it. I wish it was higher. But it’s barely a =; I wake up tomorrow, I might feel more positive.

Jalon Walker

Georgia // Linebacker

73.1 [-2]
84 [1]
5* [3]
83.6 [1]
-2 [-1]

GUT: —

TOTAL: 2/5-

Analysis: For someone as skilled as Walker, his production overall grade is downright bad. I am always skeptical of drafting seemingly unproductive elite athletes and turning them into refined players; it can happen but it takes the right situation.