Predicitions and Systems Part III

In Part II, we analyzed five players that are at the top of most NFL Draft Big Boards using the hand grenades-not-horseshoes 5/5 system I devised. In Part III, we will examine ten more.

A refresher on the 5/5 System:

PFF overall grade (I often call this a Production rating/score/grade)
NFL Combine athleticism score
High school star ranking
PFF primary skill rating
Weighted schedule using Jeff Sagarin rankings

Gut Reaction: + // — // =

A player can score higher than 5/5. A 4* rating gets you one point, but a 5* rating gets you two; a PFF overall grade of 82 can get you one point, but 90+ gets you three and maybe even four. The higher the score, the better the player.

I then add a final piece — this is purely speculative, purely my own analysis and gut reaction. There is a sound logic and analysis behind it, but at the end of the day, I am simply adding a plus, a minus, or an equal sign to say that my gut is telling me this player is likely to be good, bad, or uncertain.

As a quick explainer on #5 — I use Jeff Sagarin’s rankings on college football teams to determine which is a Good, Bad, or Mediocre team.

1-30 is considered Good
31-45 is considered Mediocre
46+ is considered Bad
100+ ranked teams get an extra penalty

I then use the PFF player ranking for that game and adjust it up or down depending on the strength of competition.

The player production rankings are

Elite (90+)
Pro Bowl (85-89.9)
Starter (70.0-84.9)
Back Up 60-69.9)
Replaceable (0-59.9)

An Example:

John Doe played North State and had a 96 Production rating. North State is ranked 106 by Jeff Sagarin. A 96 production score would normally rank out as Elite; but being above a 100 means I knock it down two levels to simply Starter.

* * * * *

Jihaad Campbell

Alabama // Linebacker

81.6 PFF Overall Grade [1]
82 NFL Combine Athlete Score [1]
5 Star High School Rating [2]
76.3 Primary Skill Rating [-1]
-3 Weighted Schedule Score [-2]

Gut Reaction: = [Flat]

TOTAL: 1/5 =

Analysis: Having watched Jihaad Campbell in many games this year, this doesn’t quite gel with what my eyes saw. Having done a few of these 5/5 evaluations I am starting to wonder if I am underrating the NFL Combine Athlete Score.

James Pearce JR

Edge // Tennessee

87.1 PFF [2]
74 Athlete Score [-1]
4* HS Rating [1]
89.4 PS rating [2]
-1 WS [-1]

Gut: +

TOTAL: 3/5 +

Analysis: Best play came against best teams, even with a bad WS score. Don’t love the athlete score. Incredible PS rating.

Mike Green

Marshall // Edge

92.4 [3]
75 [-1]
3* [=]
91.4 [3]
-4 [-2]

Gut: =

TOTAL: 3/5 =

Analysis: Terrible schedule, but he graded extremely well on both overall and primary skill, which is what you want from a guy who played a terrible schedule. Not great athlete score, only a 3 star pedigree. His best game was against the best team (Ohio State) so I don’t have a great read.

Will Johnson

Michigan // Cornerback

76.5 [-1]
83 [1]
4* [1]
76.7 [-1]
-2 [-1]

Gut: +

TOTAL: -1/5 +

Analysis: Uninspiring overall and primary skill. Bad WS. Only six games played. And yet, my gut is a positive on him. Why? Because he had top, top level play against the best teams on his schedule.

Armand Membou

Missouri // Offensive Tackle

90.6 [3]
94 [3]
4* [1]
86.6 [1]
0 [0]

Gut: +

TOTAL: 8/5+

Analysis: Green flags abound. One of my favorite players in this draft class.

Donovan Ezeiruaku

Boston College // Edge

90 [3]
84 [1]
3* [0]
90.5 [3]
-2 [-1]

Gut: =

TOTAL: 6/5=

Analysis: Incredible production, excellent athlete, supremely skilled. What worries me is that he didn’t grade out as good as one would expect against the best competition on his schedule. That could just be random noise in a season, but it does give me pause.

Walter Nolen

Ole Miss // Defensive Tackle

88.9 [2]
74 [-1]
5* [2]
91.2 [3]
-4 [-2]

Gut: +

TOTAL: 4/5+

Analysis: An incredible player with an incredible pedigree. Graded out as one the most skilled players in the draft, though his primary skill is more run-stopping than pass-rushing. The Red Flags are a low athlete score and a surprisingly poor Weighted Schedule score. However, his pedigree and skill make very positive on his future.

Josh Simmons

Ohio State // Offensive Tackle

74.4 [-1]
76 [-1]
4* [1]
82 [1]
-8 [-3]

Gut: —

TOTAL: -3/5—

Analysis: Only played six games, and didn’t fair well in any of them. The 5/5 system doesn’t hold him in high regard. As I’ve said, this is as much an experiment as it is about being predictive, so I’ll be very interested to see if this holds up over time.

Emeka Egbuka

Ohio State // Wide Receiver

79.5 [0]
75 [-1]
5* [2]
82.4 [1]
+1 [1]

Gut: =

TOTAL: 3/5+

Analysis: Streaky season, with some electric highs (Oregon, Iowa, Indiana) and some strange lows (Akron, Purdue, Northwestern). That gives me a little pause. Excellent pedigree, excellent primary skill.

Kelvin Banks JR

Texas // Offensive Tackle

86.2 [2]
78 [0]
5* [2]
89.9 [3]
+5 [2]

Gut: +

TOTAL: 9/5+

Analysis: One of my favorite players in the draft. Had a top-tier year as a pass blocker. Love his Weighted Schedule score. I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t become a very good player.