Predictions and Systems Part II — The NFL Draft 2025

In Part I, we analyzed five players that are at the top of most NFL Draft Big Boards using the hand grenades-not-horseshoes 5/5 system I devised. In Part II, we will examine five more.

A refresher on the 5/5 System:

PFF overall grade (I often call this a Production rating/score/grade)
NFL Combine athleticism score
High school star ranking
PFF primary skill rating
Weighted schedule using Jeff Sagarin rankings

Gut Reaction: + // — // =

A player can score higher than 5/5. A 4* rating gets you one point, but a 5* rating gets you two; a PFF overall grade of 82 can get you one point, but 90+ gets you three and maybe even four. The higher the score, the better the player.

I then add a final piece — this is purely speculative, purely my own analysis and gut reaction. There is a sound logic and analysis behind it, but at the end of the day, I am simply adding a plus, a minus, or an equal sign to say that my gut is telling me this player is likely to be good, bad, or unsure.

As a quick explainer on #5 — I use Jeff Sagarin’s rankings on college football teams to determine which is a Good, Bad, or Mediocre team.

1-30 is considered Good
31-45 is considered Mediocre
46+ is considered Bad
100+ ranked teams get an extra penalty

I then use the PFF player ranking for that game and adjust it up or down depending on the strength of competition.

The player production rankings are

Elite (90+)
Pro Bowl (85-89.9)
Starter (70.0 -84.9)
Back Up 60-69.9)
Replaceable (0-59.9)

An Example:

John Doe played North State and had a 96 Production rating. North State is ranked 106 by Jeff Sagarin. A 96 production score would normally rank out as Elite; but being above a 100 means I knock it down two levels to simply Starter.

* * * * *

Will Campbell

LSU // Offensive Tackle

72.2 PFF overall grade [-1]
88 NFL Combine Athlete Score [+1]
4* High School Athlete [+1]
80.6 PFF Primary Skill Rating [+1]
-6 Weighted Schedule Score [-2]

Gut Reaction: — [negative]

TOTAL: 0/5 —

Analysis: Great athlete, good pedigree, good primary skill. Better in 2023, bad overall grade, horrible Weighed Schedule Score, Combine chatter about short arms

Luther Burden III

Missouri // Wide Receiver

77.9 overall
79 athlete grade
5*
80.2 prime skill
-3 Weighted Schedule Score (WS)

Gut: —

TOTAL: 0/5–

Analysis: Elite Pedigree, good primary skill. Mediocre production grade (77.9), worrisome athlete grade, poor WS

Jahdae Barron

Texas // Cornerback

90.7 [+2]
82 [+1]
4* [+1]
91.1 [+2]
+3 [+1]

Gut: +

TOTAL: 7/5+

Analysis: Incredible production, incredible skill. Wish the athlete and WS score was higher

Tyler Warren

Penn State // Tight End

91.3 [+2]
85 [+1]
3* [–]
93.4 [+2]
+2 [+1]

Gut: +

Analysis: Incredible Production rating, incredible primary skill, a top-notch athlete. Mediocre pedigree, don’t love the WS

Malaki Starks

Georgia // Safety

78.3 [–]
67 [-2]
5* [+2]
72.1 [-1]
-6 [-2]

Gut: —

Analysis: This is… very weird. I don’t buy this at all. This does not compute with virtually any other analysis about Malaki Starks. In one way, this is embarrassing. In another, it’s kind of thrilling, because either 5/5 is Babe Ruth pointing to the outfield or it’s some fat fuck on a softball field pointing at the outfield mere seconds before tearing his hamstring on a dribbler back to the pitcher.