In Part V, we analyzed ten players that are at the top of most NFL Draft Big Boards using the hand grenades-not-horseshoes 5/5 system I devised. In Part VI, we will examine the final ten of my fifty person Big Board.
A refresher on the 5/5 System:
- PFF overall grade (I often call this a Production rating/score/grade)
- NFL Combine athleticism score
- High school star ranking
- PFF primary skill rating
- Weighted schedule using Jeff Sagarin rankings
Gut Reaction: + // — // =
A player can score higher than 5/5. A 4* rating gets you one point, but a 5* rating gets you two; a PFF overall grade of 82 can get you one point, but 90+ gets you three and maybe even four. The higher the score, the better the player.
I then add a final piece — this is purely speculative, purely my own analysis and gut reaction. There is a sound logic and analysis behind it, but at the end of the day, I am simply adding a plus, a minus, or an equal sign to say that my gut is telling me this player is likely to be good, bad, or unsure.
As a quick explainer on #5 — I use Jeff Sagarin’s rankings on college football teams to determine which is a Good, Bad, or Mediocre team.
- 1-30 is considered Good
- 31-45 is considered Mediocre
- 46+ is considered Bad
- 100+ ranked teams get an extra penalty
I then use the PFF player ranking for that game and adjust it up or down depending on the strength of competition.
The player production rankings are
- Elite (90+)
- Pro Bowl (85-89.9)
- Starter (70.0 -84.9)
- Back Up 60-69.9)
- Replaceable (0-59.9)
An Example:
- John Doe played North State and had a 96 Production rating. North State is ranked 106 by Jeff Sagarin. A 96 production score would normally rank out as Elite; but being above a 100 means I knock it down two levels to simply Starter.
* * * * *
Landon Jackson
Arkansas // Edge
- 83 [1]
- 86 [2]
- 4* [1] // 4*[1]
- 72.2 [-2]
- 0 [0]
Gut: +
TOTAL: 3/5+
Analysis: Landon Jackson is one of my favorite players in this draft, and someone I think is very underrated. I love his athleticism, but I don’t love that his primary skill grades out so low.
Maxwell Hairston
Kentucky // Cornerback
- 67 [-4]
- 82 [1]
- 3* [0]
- 66.1 [-4]
- -4 [-2]
Gut: –
TOTAL: -9/8-
Analysis: Not ideal.
Nick Emmanwori
South Carolina // Safety
- 79.6 [0]
- 91 [4]
- 3* [0]
- 86.8 [2]
- -4 [-2]
Gut: +
TOTAL: 4/5+
Analysis: An insane athlete with very developed skills. Another underrated player in this draft. He’s 6’3 and 220lbs and runs a 4.38 40-yard dash — the size of a modern NFL linebacker with the speed of top flight defensive back. If he lives up to his athleticism and college skills, he could end up as one of the steals of the draft.
Shavon Revel
ECU // Cornerback
- 84 [1]
- 89 [2]
- 3* [0]
- 85.4 [2]
- -3 [-2]
Gut: +
TOTAL: 3/5+
Analysis: The only thing about him that I don’t like is that he tore his ACL this past season. In terms of production, athleticism, and skill, he’s near the top of the list. I’d bet on him succeeding.
Princely Umanmielen
Ole Miss // Edge
- 91.5 [4]
- 69 [-4]
- 4* [1] // 4* [1]
- 91.5 [4]
- -1 [-1]
Gut: +
Analysis: This guy is a football player. His athlete score sucks and his WS score sucks but he performs so well that I don’t really care. A player to keep an eye on.
Shemar Turner
Texas A&M // Defensive Tackle
- 59.6 [-5]
- 78 [0]
- 4* [0]
- 64.3 [-4]
- -11 [-4]
Gut: –
TOTAL: -12/5-
Analysis: Not ideal.
Shadeur Sanders
Colorado // Quarterback
- 90.9 [3]
- 63 [-4]
- 4* [1] // 4* [1]
- 90.5 [3]
- +6 [3]
Gut: +
TOTAL: 7/5+
Analysis: Look, there has been a lot of talk about this QB class — much of it negative or at best faint praise. Sanders has taken a bunch of heat in that talk. He’s been described pejoratively as a “coach’s kid” — extremely well prepared, extremely polished, but not necessarily enough of an athlete to hang with the top guys.
Here’s the thing — they’re right, but they’re wrong. He isn’t a top flight athlete, he isn’t the most imposing figure, and he has had every opportunity and advantage as Deion Sanders son. But he’s also a really good fucking Quarterback. Is he perfect? Does he need to improve? Sure. But god damn, man, the dude competes and works his ass off and really, really gives a shit.
If his floor is “limited mobility pocket passer who doesn’t make a ton of mistakes”, then he’s Kirk Cousins, and that’s not a bad way to spend a first round pick! If he gets faster with his reads, he’s Philip Rivers.
If you are as desperate as the Browns are, or any team that needs a Quarterback — is it that crazy to take a swing on a well-developed, highly-polished guy who has a track record of competitiveness and mistake-free football?
Tyler Booker
Alabama // Guard
- 66.5 [-4]
- 56 [-5]
- 4* [1]
- 86.5 [2]
- -11 [-4]
Gut: =
TOTAL: -10/5
Analysis: Incredibly, incredibly skilled — he graded out very well as both a pass and run blocker. The rest of the 5/5 system, however, does not exactly like him. So… I’m not really sure!
Alfred Collins
Texas // Defensive Tackle
- 87.2 [2]
- 60 [-4]
- 5* [2]
- 85 [2]
- +8 [3]
Gut: +
TOTAL: 5/5+
Analysis: Bad athlete score, generational otherwise. The 5/5 system loves this guy, and so do I.
Jaxson Dart
Ole Miss // Quarterback
- 92.5 [4]
- 74 [-2]
- 4* [1] // 4* [1]
- 91.9 [4]
- +9 [3]
Gut: +
TOTAL: 11/5+
Analysis: Highly productive, highly skilled, and one of the best stretch of games I’ve seen from the Oklahoma game to the Florida game. Maybe he fails, maybe the 5/5 overrates QBs — all of this is possible and maybe even probable. But there’s no obvious red flags, and he played well against the best competition. We will see.
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