Welcome to Outside Chance! This is a series about players I like who aren’t considered top NFL draft prospects. I’ll be doing a couple of these per week until the NFL draft.

I won’t be using the 5/5 system I devised to put create my Big Board and NFL mock draft. Why? Two reasons — one, I want to explore other ideas and concepts, and B) I don’t feel like using it.

Anyway here we go.

Elijah Roberts

Edge // SMU

After the quarterback, the most impactful player on the field is the edge rusher. Linebacker, defensive end, defensive tackle — whoever can get to the quarterback and take him down will make a lot of money. One sack takes away a down and turns the next down into two, considering the distance lost. One sack can end an entire possession, and even the best teams only get five or six possessions per game.

Finding an edge rusher is a desperate exercise. The obvious ones go at the top. But there are plenty to find past the first round, if you know what you are looking for.

Despite what I just said, sacks are not the way to most accurately judge a player on his pass rushing ability. You can luck your way into a large number of takedowns, should the sun shine upon you favorably; it can be highly dependent on how good your teammates are, what kind of quarterback, scheme, etc. A better way to judge someone’s pass rushing skill (through stats alone) is by looking at a few other stats instead.

First off, let’s take a look at Hurries, Hits, and Total Pressures.

Hurries are when a pass rusher forces a QB into doing something they don’t wan’t to do — throw early, break the pocket, scramble, etc. It’s not as valuable as a sack, but it does significantly increase the odds of a negative play.

Hits are exactly what they sound like — times the QB actually got hit, with or without a sack. Now, Hits don’t always correlate to sacks; you can hit a QB and not take him down because he got the ball out.

(As a funny aside, Elijah Roberts had seven hits but eight sacks — my assumption is the QB either tripped or intentionally turtled because he saw Elijah Roberts bearing down on him.)

The final stat in this section is Total Pressures. This incldues Sacks, Hits, and Hurries.

Elijah Roberts is 1st in Hurries, and 6th in Total Pressures, despite only having seven hits and eight sacks. That means he was consistently disrupitve but couldn’t quite get his hands on the QB. You’d rather have the sacks then the pressures because a sack often ends a possession, but in terms of measuring someone’s actual skill as a pass rusher, Total Pressures gives you a clearer picture. Sacks can fluctuate depending on teammates and schemes, but Hurries and Pressures will almost always remain the same.

These are two more stats pulled from PFF premium stats archives. Pass-Rush Productivity (PRP) is a pretty simple forumla:

• ((Hurries + Hits) / 2) + (Sacks) / (Pass-Rush Snaps)

The goal of this formula is to give extra weight to snaps while making sure that the other statistics still get their due. You can backtest this number and see that it captures the best pass rushers pretty well.

• 2024 NFL PRP Leader:
  • Trey Hendrickson — 10.4
• 2023 NFL PRP Leader:
  • Khalil Mack — 10.4
• 2022 NFL PRP Leader:
  • Brian Burns — 8.2
• 2021 NFL PRP Leader:
  • Maxx Crosby — 10.0
• 2020 NFL PRP Leader:
  • Aaron Donald — 10.4

Hopefully you are convinced of the efficacy of PRP. Now, the more pertinent question is: how well does PRP in college predict PRP in the NFL? I went back twyear from the above stats because the 2024 leaders are not in the NFL yet and the extra year is to allow for players to adjust to the NFL.

• 2022 NCAA PRP Leader:
  • Will Anderson — 11.2
• 2021 NCAA PRP Leader:
  • Aidan Hutchison — 10.9
    • Will Anderson was in second with 10.7
• 2020 NCAA PRP Leader:
  • Will Anderson — 9.9
    • Jesus fucking Christ, again?
• 2019 NCAA PRP Leader:
  • Pat Jones JR 9.3
• 2018 NCAA PRP Leader:
  • Chase Young — 9.8
    • Brian Burms was in second with 9.2

Before we continue — what the fuck was Will Anderson on in college? I mean, god damn. He was the best or tied for the best pass rusher for three years in a row! When the Texas drafted him people were a little upset! They thought it was a reach? What made it a reach? Was it beacuse he came in second as a Sophomore to AIDAN HUTCHISON of all people??????????

Anyway, sorry. What in the world. This has derailed my train of thought. What a monster.

Okay, so, wow — my point is that the college PRP captures pass rush ability pretty well. Outside of Pat Jones JR (who ranks near the bottom of the NFL PRP list), you’ve got quite a list of players. WIll Anderson, of course, my god, skews the list, but even accounting for that the worst player mentioned is probaby Chase Young and he’s still a valuble member of any roster one could construct.

Elijah Roberts was #3 in PRP in college; that is a large point in his favor. However, he has the same PRP overall number and only one more Hurry than Pat Jones, who has not lived up to the potential he showed in college. Pat Jones had more sacks (10 to 8), as well.

I take his PRP score a positive indicator, but there are still red flags, as well.

Let’s try to weight it out with the second stat on that graphic, Win Rate Percentage (W%).

• 2022 NCAA W% Leader:
  • Karl Brooks — 21.5%
    • Will Anderson was, of course, in 4th
• 2021 NCAA W% Leader:
  • Aidan Hutchison — 22.5%
    • Will Anderson was 6th
• 2020 NCAA W% Leader:
  • Cam Sample — 19.9%
• 2019 NCAA W% Leader:
  • Chase Young — 26.6%
• 2018 NCAA W% Leader:
  • Mike Danna — 23.8%

This is much more hit or miss. Elijah Roberts was 5th on the year, with a win rate of over 20%, and you want that number higher than lower. Aidan Hutchison and Will Anderson and Chase Young being near the top in their years in college does lend some credibility.

Elijah Roberts isn’t regarded as a top NFL prospect. But I think he should be. I think he will go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and could potentially be a steal.

Even if he never quite breaks out as a double digit sack guy, he would still be valuable busting up possessions by getting in the QB’s head. He’s someone worth taking a swing on, I think.